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Japanese House of Councillors election, 2016

← 2013 10 July 2016 2019 →
121 (of the 242) seats in the House of Councillors 122 seats needed for a majority
First party Second party Third party   Leader Shinzō Abe Katsuya Okada Natsuo Yamaguchi Party Liberal Democratic Democratic Komeito Leader since 26 September 2012 14 December 2014 8 September 2009 Last election 115 seats, 34.7% New party 20 seats, 14.2% Seats after 121 49 25 Seat change 6 11 5 Popular vote 20,114,833 11,751,009 7,572,973 Percentage 35.9% 21.0% 13.5% Swing 1.2% N/A 0.7%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Kazuo Shii Ichirō Matsui Kyoko Nakayama Party Communist Ishin Japanese Kokoro Leader since 24 November 2000 2 November 2015 21 December 2015 Last election 11 seats, 9.7% New party New party Seats after 14 12 3 Seat change 3 5 0 Popular vote 6,016,245 5,153,684 734,024 Percentage 10.7% 9.2% 1.3% Swing 1.0% N/A N/A   Seventh party Eighth party   Leader Tadatomo Yoshida Ichirō Ozawa Party Social Democratic People's Life Leader since 14 October 2013 25 January 2013 Last election 3 seats, 2.4% 2 seats, 1.8% Seats after 2 2 Seat change 1 1 Popular vote 1,536,238 1,067,300 Percentage 2.7% 1.9% Swing 0.3% 0.1%
President of the House of Councillors before election Masaaki Yamazaki Liberal Democratic Elected President of the House of Councillors Masaaki Yamazaki Liberal Democratic

The 24th regular election of members of the House of Councillors (dai-nijūyon-kai Sangiin giin tsūjō senkyo, 第24回参議院議員通常選挙) was held on Sunday 10 July 2016 to elect 121 of the 242 members of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the 717-member bicameral National Diet of Japan, for a term of six years. As a result of the election, the LDP/Komeito coalition gained ten seats for a total of 146 (60.3% of all seats in the house), the largest coalition achieved since the size of the house was set at 242 seats.^[1]

76 members were elected by single non-transferable vote (SNTV) and first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting in 45 multi- and single-member prefectural electoral districts; for the first time, there were two combined (gōku) single-member districts consisting of two prefectures each, Tottori-Shimane and Tokushima-Kōchi. This change and several other reapportionments were part of an electoral reform law passed by the Diet in July 2015 designed to reduce the maximum ratio of malapportionment in the House of Councillors below 3.^[2][3] The nationwide district which elects 48 members by D'Hondt proportional representation with most open lists remained unchanged.

This election was the first national election since the 2015 change to the Public Offices Election Act allowed minors from 18 years of age to vote in national, prefectural and municipal elections and in referendums.^[4]

Background

The term of members elected in the 2010 regular election (including those elected in subsequent by-elections or as runners-up) ends on July 25, 2016. Under the "Public Offices Election Act" (kōshoku-senkyo-hō), the regular election must be held within 30 days before that date, or under certain conditions if the Diet is in session or scheduled to open at that time, between 24 and 30 days after the closure of the session and thus potentially somewhat after the actual end of term.^[5] The election date was July 10 with the deadline for nominations and the start of legal campaigning 18 days before the election (i.e. June 22).^[6]

Prior to the election, the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito controlled a two-thirds super-majority of seats in the House of Representatives but did not control a similar super-majority of seats in the House of Councillors, necessary to initiate amendments of the Constitution of Japan.^[7] In order to deny a super-majority to the LDP and other pro-amendment parties, the parties opposed to amending the constitution (Democratic Party, Japanese Communist Party, Social Democratic Party and People's Life Party) agreed to field a single candidate in each single-seat district, leading to a number of one-on-one races between the LDP and an opposition candidate (most of which the LDP ultimately won).^[8] Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, historically a vocal proponent of constitutional revision, generally avoided discussing the constitution during the campaign, instead focusing on his "Abenomics" economic policies.^[9]

On the eve of the election, Gerald Curtis described the race as "one of the dullest in recent memory," pointing out that "never in Japan's postwar history has the political opposition been as enfeebled as it is now... That's why widespread public disappointment with the government's economic policies hasn't hurt Mr. Abe politically. The prevailing sentiment is that he has done better than his predecessors, and replacing him with another LDP leader, let alone an opposition coalition government, would only make matters worse—especially now that the global economy is in turmoil."^[10]

Pre-election composition

As of the official announcement (kōji, the candidate registration deadline and when the campaign starts) on 22 June (count by Yomiuri Shimbun):^[11]

In the class of members facing re-election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Kōmeitō had a combined 60 of 121 seats, slightly short of a majority (as of June 2016).^[12] The main opposition Democratic Party held 47 seats.^[12] As the coalition held 77 seats not being contested at this election, they only needed to retain 44 seats in the election to maintain their majority in the House. The LDP, which held 117 seats alone, had to gain five seats to reach a majority of its own and make the coalition with Kōmeitō unnecessary. In the other direction, the governing coalition would have to lose 16 seats or more to forfeit its overall majority in the House of Councillors and face a technically divided Diet. However, as independents and minor opposition groups might be willing to support the government on a regular basis without inclusion in the cabinet, the losses required to face an actual divided Diet may have been much higher. If the Diet were divided after the election, the coalition's two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives could still override the House of Councillors and pass legislation, but certain Diet decisions, notably the approval of certain nominations by the cabinet such as public safety commission members or Bank of Japan governor, would require the cooperation of at least part of the opposition or an expansion of the ruling coalition.

Among the members facing re-election were House of Councillors President Masaaki Yamazaki (LDP, Fukui), Vice President Azuma Koshiishi (DPJ, Yamanashi), Justice Minister Mitsuhide Iwaki (LDP, Fukushima) and Okinawa and Science Minister Aiko Shimajiri (LDP, Okinawa).

Policy effects

The election gave a two-thirds super-majority in the upper house to the four parties in favor of constitutional revision. After the election, Abe publicly acknowledged that constitutional revision would be "not so easy" and said "I expect the discussion will be deepened." The Chinese government voiced concern about the result, while South Korean newspaper Munhwa Ilbo opined that the election results "opened the door for a Japan that can go to war."^[9]

Abe announced a major economic stimulus package following the election, leading to a spike in the Japanese stock markets.^[13]

District reapportionment

The following districts saw a change in their representation within the House at this election. One set of reforms were introduced in 2012 and first took effect at the 2013 election; the districts affected by the 2015 reforms are shaded.

Opinion Polls

Approval (blue) and Disapproval (red) Ratings for Second and Third Abe Cabinet

Notable results

• A record 28 women picked up seats in the election (compared to 26 in 2007 and 22 in 2013).^[32] Among them, actress Junko Mihara won a seat representing Kanagawa Prefecture for the LDP.^[33]


• 
  Yoshimi Watanabe, former leader of Your Party, returned to the Diet in this election, winning a seat as part of Osaka Ishin no Kai.^[34]


• Justice minister Mitsuhide Iwaki lost his seat in Fukushima Prefecture to an opposition-supported candidate.^[35]


• 
  Aiko Shimajiri, state minister for Okinawan affairs, lost her seat to former Ginowan, Okinawa mayor Yoichi Iha, a critic of the US military presence in Okinawa supported by a coalition of opposition parties. This was viewed by some analysts as a setback for the proposed relocation of Marine Corps Air Station Futenma.^[35][36]


• Former Olympic volleyball player Kentaro Asahi won a seat representing the Tokyo at-large district for the LDP.^[37]


• On the same day, journalist Satoshi Mitazono defeated incumbent Yuichiro Ito in a gubernatorial election in Kagoshima Prefecture. Mitazono campaigned on a platform focused on suspension of the Sendai Nuclear Power Plant.^[38]

Results

Important thresholds:

• Majority (ensures certain passage of legislation, approval of nominations) at 122 seats – LDP at 121 in the election result (at 122 several days later)


• Two-thirds supermajority (can initiate a referendum on changes to the constitution) at 162 – Election result: Ruling parties at 146, government+revisionist opposition parties at 161, government+government-aligned independents [count by Asahi]^[39]+revisionist opposition at 164


• One third (can block changes to the constitution) at 81 – Core anti-revisionist opposition (DP, JCP, SDP, PLP, OSMP, opposition-aligned [count by Asahi]^[39] independents) at 73


• Initiating budget-related Private member's bills (i.e. bills not sponsored by the cabinet): 20 seats – met in the opposition only by DP (also the only opposition party that meets the 50-seat threshold in the House of Representatives)


• Initiating other PMBs, excluding budget-related measures: 10 seats, met in the opposition by DP, JCP and Ōsaka Ishin (DP and JCP also meet the 20-seat threshold in the House of Representatives)

Results by electoral district

Abbreviations and translations used in this table for (nominating – endorsing) parties:

• L – Liberal Democratic Party
  


• D – Democratic Party
  


• K – Komeito
  


• C - Japanese Communist Party
  


• S – Social Democratic Party
  


• I – Independent


• Osaka Ishin – Initiatives from Osaka
  


• PLP – People's Life Party
  


• Kokoro – Party for Japanese Kokoro
  


• AEJ – Assembly to Energize Japan
  


• NRP – New Renaissance Party
  


• NPD – New Party Daichi
  


• support no party – [Self-chosen name for English-speakers unknown],^[44] domestically Shiji seitō nashi (支持政党なし)


• Angry voice of the people^[45] (Kokumin ikari no koe)


• HRP – Happiness Realization Party
  

References

External links

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Japanese House of Councillors election, 2016.

• Major party nominations
  
  • LDP: Candidate nominations for the 24th Councillors elections: national proportional, prefectural district direct election, endorsed
    
  
  
  • Democratic Party: Candidate nominations for upcoming elections: 24th Councillors election proportional, direct election incl. endorsed 48th Representatives election
    
  
  
  • Kōmeitō: Manifesto and candidates for the 2016 Councillors election
    
  
  
  • 
    Communist Party: Candidate nominations for the 24th Councillors election (both tiers)
    
  
  
  • 
    Initiatives from Osaka: Candidate nominations for the 24th Councillors election (both tiers)